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Power Supply Outlook Update
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This is a snapshot of Northwest power supply and electricity
demand. For more information, contact John
Fazio.
October 2008 Summary: The region has ample supplies over the next five years to avoid significant power curtailments. Counting existing resources only
and including about 2,200 average megawatts of uncontracted regional market supply, the
annual energy surplus is forecast to be about 1,900 average megawatts by 2013. The most
critical period, however, appears to be summer, due to increasing air conditioning demand and reductions in hydroelectric capability. The 2013
summer capacity surplus is
estimated to be about 1,400 megawatts (it takes about 1,000 megawatts to power the city of Seattle).
For more information, please see the 2008 Adequacy
Assessment (330k Word).
Although the risk of a major supply shortage for the region is minimal, utilities are actively pursuing new resource and conservation acquisition for a number of reasons; to meet
their own local needs, to satisfy state mandated renewable resource portfolios or to minimize dependence on market supplies. The Council is developing a regional resource
acquisition strategy that will address these and other issues in its next power plan due out next year.
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Regional load: actual vs. forecasts
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This graph shows how closely
our predictions (blue) for power supply/needs match reality (gray).
The short-term forecast and actual loads both remain below the trend
forecast from the 5th power plan but the gap is closing. |
This graph shows the
difference between actual and long-term forecast on an annual basis. |
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Columbia River runoff volume forecast
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Updated biweekly between January and July
Last updated 07-08-2008
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Reservoir elevations and flows
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Updated daily
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Data for
October 14 |
Elevation
(ft) |
Normal Full
Pool (ft) |
Avg Oct 14 Elevation
for last 10 years (ft) |
| Hungry Horse |
3531.4 |
3561.0 |
3536.1 |
| Libby |
2441.2 |
2459.0 |
2437.1 |
| Grand Coulee |
1287.6 |
1290.0 |
1286.2 |
| Dworshak |
1519.5 |
1600.0 |
1518.2 |
| courtesy
of U of W's DART program |
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The 1st table lists elevations for major U.S.
reservoirs.
The 2nd table lists river flow at key Lower Snake and Columbia
dams. |
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New Northwest generating resources
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Updated quarterly
Last updated Oct 2008
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New resources either
recently online or coming online soon.
See how much Northwest power comes from hydropower
vs other sources.
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Project
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Location
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Type
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Capacity (MW)
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Energy (MWa)
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Service Date
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Note
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Under construction
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| Glacier Wind Energy |
Toole/Glacier Cty, MT |
Windpower |
107 |
34 |
Dec 2008 |
Est. energy |
| Pebble Springs |
Arlington, OR |
Windpower |
99 |
32 |
2009 |
Est. energy |
| Rattlesnake Road |
Gilliam Co., OR |
Windpower |
103 |
33 |
2009 |
Est. energy |
| Simpson Tacoma Cogen |
Tacoma, WA |
Wood residue steam cogen |
55 |
46 |
Aug 2009 |
Est. energy |
| Wheat Field |
Arlington, OR |
Windpower |
97 |
28 |
Jun 2009 |
Est. energy |
| Willow Creek |
Arlington, OR |
Windpower |
72 |
23 |
Dec 2008 |
Est. energy |
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Recently in-service
(last 12 months) |
| Biglow Canyon |
Sherman Co, OR |
Windpower |
125 |
42 |
Dec 2007 |
Est. energy |
Danskin CT1 |
Mountain Home, ID |
Natural gas simple cycle gas turbine |
170 |
As dispatched |
Jun 2008 |
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| Diamond Willow |
Fallon Co, MT |
Windpower |
20 |
6 |
Jun 2008 |
In MRO reliability area; Est. energy |
| Elkhorn |
Union Co, OR |
Windpower |
100 |
33 |
Dec 2007 |
Est. energy |
| Freres Lumber |
Lyons, OR |
Wood waste cogeneration |
10 |
9 |
Dec 2007 |
Est. energy |
| Goodnoe Hills |
Klickitat Co., WA |
Windpower |
94 |
30 |
Jun 2008 |
Est. energy |
| Grays Harbor |
Satsop, WA |
Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine |
650 |
As dispatched |
Jul 2008 |
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| Klondike III |
Wasco Co., OR |
Windpower |
221 |
71 |
Mar 2008 |
Est. energy |
| Klondike IIIA |
Wasco Co., OR |
Windpower |
77 |
25 |
Sept 2008 |
Est. energy |
| Marengo II (Dayton) |
Columbia Co., WA |
Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine |
70 |
23 |
Jun 2008 |
Est. energy |
| Mint Farm |
Longview, WA |
Natural gas combined-cycle gas turbine |
319 |
As dispatched |
Jan 2008 |
Est. energy |
| Raft River |
Cassia Co. ID |
Geothermal |
16 |
12 |
Jan 2008 |
Est. energy |
| White Creek |
Klickitat Co., WA |
Windpower |
205 |
60 |
Nov 2007 |
Est. energy |
Suspended
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| Emmett |
Emmett, ID |
Wood waste cogeneration |
11 |
7 |
2007 |
At Boise Emmett mill |
More detail > (~350k
Excel)
Power flow in and out of the region
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Updated daily
Current period: 15SEP08-14OCT08
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Intertie |
Avg power flow |
Direction |
| California (AC+DC) |
2091 mw |
export to California |
| Canada (BC) |
627 mw |
export to Canada |
| Total |
2718 mw |
export |
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This shows how much average power has been imported
and exported in the last 30 days.
For more information, see Bonneville's
intertie analyses
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Acronyms and glossary
DSI - Direct Service Industry, like aluminum processors
intertie - high-voltage transmission lines connecting the Northwest
to other regions
KCFS - thousand cubic feet per second
load - demand
MAF - million acre-feet
MW - megawatt
NMFS - National Marine Fisheries Service |
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